Perhaps Kelce qualifies more as an overrated fantasy player than a harshly labeled “bust,” but he’ll soon be 33 and is clearly in the declining phase of his career — is still slated as a top-20 pick. Kelce’s yards per carry are down nearly 20 percent over the past three seasons with Tyreek Hill off the fieldand added Kansas City JuJu Smith-Schuster to play the slot during the offseason.
Kelce is drafted higher than Mark Andrewswho is six years younger, lost Marquise Brown as competition and saw 15 end zone targets last season compared to only four for Kelce. Make it meaningful!
Sutton’s ADP looked similar one of the most egregious in recent memory before Tim Patrick dropped for the season, but is now routinely overpriced. Although it’s definitely a boost Russell Wilson As his quarterback, Sutton’s ADP pegs him as a top-20 WR, which is awfully offensive. Sutton’s goal per route reduced by 38% and his yards per carry dropped from 2.10 to 0.48 (!) with Jeudy on the field last season.
In other words, even though Jeudy was playing with a severely sprained ankle, 83% of Sutton’s fantasy points came with his teammate away from the field last season. While there has admittedly been some Wilson/Sutton buzz this summer, there is a real argument The Denver’s wrong receiver is drafted first in fantasy leagues.
Allen has a safe floor and a star running back, but this is a 30-year-old whose yards per carry have dropped in every season since 2017, ranking just 30th among 90 certified WRs last year. Most importantly, Allen’s fantasy goals and output plummeted once Joshua Palmer took over as LA’s WR3 over the final five weeks last season.
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In other words, Allen saw His target per route dropped from 27 percent to 20 percent with Palmer on the courtand the sophomore evidence to see a lot more action in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel
Samuel is shaping up to be a borderline top-eight fantasy receiver didn’t rank in the top-50 in routes run or top-25 in targets last season. And his role in the passing game this year remains questionable with San Francisco pivoting Trey Lancewho worked exclusively with Brandon Ayuk throughout the summer while Samuel was mostly holding out for a new contract. San Francisco’s new starting QB is starting to attack completely different level of the field from Jimmy Garoppolo.
Samuel is a dynamo after the catch that will be used all over the field, but last season was the first he didn’t miss a game. It was also the first time he saw more than 81 goals. Samuel rushed somehow eight scores in just 59 attemptsand the 49ers’ RB room enters 2022 much healthier and much deeper.
Samuel simply isn’t projected to see nearly the same volume as other receivers drafted around him, making him an extremely risky second-round fantasy pick.
Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf
Metcalf still projects as borderline top-20 fantasy receiver despite Seattle loss Russell Wilson during the offseason. Geno Smith has been named QB1, (and the alternative is little better), and Metcalf has seen his airports per game are halved and his target share drops under a teammate Tyler Lockett with Smith playing quarterback.
Metcalf is talented enough to overcome his suddenly shaky situation (Seattle too ran by far the fewest plays in the NFL last season), but realize he benefited greatly from a Hall of Fame quarterback who consistently targeted him in the end zone more often than any other WR in the league.
And we haven’t even started on Metcalf’s “nutrition” Yet.
[2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEFs | Ks]
Washington Governors: Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry is one of the best wide receivers in football, but he’s being drafted way too high, as if he’s no longer plagued by a bad quarterback situation. Carson Wentz he was one of the most inaccurate QBs in the league last season and will now play outdoors and with a downgrade on the offensive line. Additionally, rookie WR Jahan Dotson he has reportedly shown more chemistry with Wentzso I have a hard time ranking McLaurin, who posted a 23-318-0 line over his final seven games last season, as a top-15 WR like his ADP.
Imagine drafting McLaurin before Allen Robinson This year.