The financial world’s attention will turn to Grand Teton National Park next week.
The Kansas City Federal Reserve will host its annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole this week, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday morning speech expected to highlight proceedings as investors look for clues on the central bank’s next move. bank.
This year’s symposium marks the first in-person Jackson Hole conference since 2019.
A close reading of Powell’s comments on Friday will come down to whether investors see the Fed chair signaling another 0.75% rate hike from the Fed at its next policy announcement on Sept. 21, or whether the Fed will ease pace of rate hikes and a 0.50% increase in benchmark rates.
In a note to clients on Friday, Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, wrote that recent economic events are likely to set the table for a 0.50% rate hike in September.
July inflation data showed a moderate easing of inflationary pressures, supporting the easing of the pace of increases. July’s jobs report dispelled concerns among some Fed officials that the labor market is softening, perhaps justifying continued aggressiveness to raise interest rates.
“To the extent these developments cancel each other out, we still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 [basis points] next month,” Hunter wrote. “It doesn’t look like it will take long for President Jerome Powell to adjust his expectations when he speaks in Jackson Hole next Friday.”
Powell’s speech will be published at 10:00 am. ET on Friday and for the first time the Fed chairman’s speech – considered the central bank’s most important communication of the year – will be broadcast live. Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung will be on the ground in Wyoming to bring readers and viewers full coverage of the events.
In addition to Powell’s speech, the economic calendar will include updates on services sector activity, inflation and consumer sentiment. PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure – is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM. ET on Friday, just 90 minutes before Powell’s speech. Powell’s speech will coincide with the release of the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index.
For Fed watchers, next week will hardly provide a summer Friday.
Although earnings season is largely over, this week’s results will continue to provide investors with key updates, with reports from Nvidia ( NVDA ), salesforce.com ( CRM ), Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ) and Dollar Tree store companies (DLTR). ) and Dollar General (DG) — the most notable releases of the week.
Last week’s results from Walmart ( WMT ) and Target ( TGT ) helped calm some investor fears about the state of the consumer, with those results coming in better than feared. However, reports from both companies signaled a more cautious approach from buyers as inflationary pressures eased in the summer months.
Walmart CFO John David Rainey told Yahoo Finance last week that the company saw customers trade up — particularly on groceries — during the quarter. Rainey also told analysts on a conference call that the company had canceled billions in orders.
Back in May, Dollar Tree and Dollar General offered some of the first signs that consumers were using their grocery sales as an opportunity to cut costs. Results from both retailers this week will be analyzed for signs of any ongoing, modified or accelerating behavioral changes.
Nvidia’s latest report also comes at a critical time for the semiconductor industry, which is often seen as a bellwether for global economic demand. Earlier this month, Nvidia warned that its quarterly results would miss estimates, and reports this week noted growing concerns about demand in the chip space as global economic activity appears to be softening.
Last week, markets snapped a four-week winning streak, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down more than 2 percent and the S&P 500 off more than 1 percent.
That loss of momentum in the summer market rally came as the latest leg of the meme market ended, with shares of Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY ) down 40% on Friday after GameStop ( GME ) Chairman Ryan Cohen revealed that had sold his entire 11.8% position in the struggling retailer.
Cohen’s sale also came as Bloomberg reported late Thursday that Bed Bath & Beyond had hired Kirkland & Ellis, a law firm known for its restructuring and bankruptcy work. After the closing on Friday, Bloomberg reported that some suppliers for Bed Bath & Beyond had stopped shipments because of unpaid bills from the retailer.
While the collapse of Bed Bath & Beyond stock was the most impressive move, last week also saw several of the summer’s “losers turned winners,” with names like Peloton (PTON), Robinhood (HOOD), and Coinbase (COIN) everything to fall. more than 13% for the week.
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity IndexJuly (-0.19 previously)
Tuesday: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIAugust prelims (51.9 expected, 52.2 previously); S&P Global US Services PMIAugust prelims (50 expected, 47.3 previously); Richmond Fed Production IndexAugust (-5 expected, 0 previously); Sales of new homesJuly (-2.5% expected, -8.1% expected)
Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications; Durable goods ordersJuly (+0.8% expected, +2% previously); Durable goods orders excluding transportationJuly (+0.2% expected, +0.4% previously); Pending home salesJuly (-2% expected, -8.6% previously)
Thursday: Initial unemployment claims (252,000 expected, 250,000 previously). Second quarter GDPsecond estimate (-0.8% expected; -0.9% previously); Kansas City Fed Construction ActivityAugust (13 previously)
Friday: Personal incomeJuly (+0.6% expected, +0.6% previously); Personal expensesJuly (+0.5% expected, +1.1% previously); Whole stocksJuly (+1.4% expected, +1.8% previously); Retail stocksJuly (+2% previously); PCE, month to monthJuly (+0.1% expected, 1% previously); PCE, year over yearJuly (+6.4% expected, +6.8% previously); Core PCE, month to monthJuly (+0.3% expected, +0.6% previously); Core PCE, year over yearJuly (+4.7% expected, +4.8% previously); University of Michigan Consumer SentimentAugust (55.3 expected, 55.1 previously)
Monday: Zoom (ZM), Nordson (NDSN), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Tuesday: Medtronic (MDT), JM Smucker (SJM), JD.com (JD), Intuition (INTU), Advance Auto Parts (AP)
Wednesday: Splunk (SPLK), NetApp (NTAP), Autodesk (ADSK), salesforce.com (CRM), Nvidia (NVDA)
Thursday: Dollar tree (DLTR), Dollar General (DG), Working day (WDAY), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Friday: No significant earnings have been determined for release.
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